Kentucky has Smooth Sailing to the Final Four...Right?
On paper, the wildcats might have an easy road to the final four, but there is one possible elite eight opponent they should not overlookWell, let’s not beat around the bush here. Your March Madness bracket is screwed, mine is screwed, everyone’s bracket is screwed. If you happened to read my NCAA first round match-ups article, you should know that my picks did not go very well. I promise you that I have seen basketball before and that everything I wrote was accurate, it’s just that sometimes the basketball gods like to laugh at people who try to make sense of a 68-team single elimination tournament. Apparently they got a real chuckle out of my pick of Virginia as the national champion.
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When the bracket was released two Sundays ago, Kentucky head coach John Calipari had the audacity to go on national television and complain about his 10 loss Wildcats getting a poor draw. News flash John, if you finish fourth in the SEC in basketball, you don’t get to complain about your road to the Final Four. Perhaps coach Cal should heed the words written across his son, Brad’s chest. Final Fours are “earned not given.” That's right, Brad Calipari, the son of a multi-millionaire Hall of Fame basketball coach, has a tattoo across his chest that reads "earned not given" in Ed Hardy type font. Calipari got his wish and the sea to the Final Four parted for his Wildcats in the form of massive upsets.
On Selection Sunday, Kentucky was staring at the likes of Arizona, Virginia, Cincinnati and Tennessee as possible foes before reaching the Final Four. Now their journey to San Antonio would be complete with victories over Davidson, Buffalo, Kansas State, and Loyola-Chicago/Nevada. No offense to Buffalo or Davidson, but both were double-digit seeds for a reason. Kentucky should beat a Kansas State team who won arguably the worst round of 32 game in the history of the tournament against UMBC. (If you are going to yell at me for being biased against K-State, you should know that in their game against UMBC, there was a period of the first half in which both teams hadn’t put the ball in the basket while the clock was running for over three minutes of play).
On Selection Sunday, Kentucky was staring at the likes of Arizona, Virginia, Cincinnati and Tennessee as possible foes before reaching the Final Four. Now their journey to San Antonio would be complete with victories over Davidson, Buffalo, Kansas State, and Loyola-Chicago/Nevada. No offense to Buffalo or Davidson, but both were double-digit seeds for a reason. Kentucky should beat a Kansas State team who won arguably the worst round of 32 game in the history of the tournament against UMBC. (If you are going to yell at me for being biased against K-State, you should know that in their game against UMBC, there was a period of the first half in which both teams hadn’t put the ball in the basket while the clock was running for over three minutes of play).
All this being said, there is a team on the bottom half of the South bracket who, even though most Kentucky fans had never heard of it, they should fear. They have two mascots: one is a wolf? Or maybe it’s a dog? And the other is a 1000 year old nun named Sister Jean. That’s right, the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers pose a very real threat to Kentucky making the Final Four, and it is not because they have god on their side. It is because, even though they might be undersized, they are damn good at playing basketball.
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Sow can a Missouri Valley Conference team who only has one rotation player who is taller than 6’7” impose a threat to the mighty Kentucky Wildcats, you might ask? Because Kentucky plays a bunch of freshmen who spent most of the season figuring out how to put the ball through the hoop. Although they have improved as the season has progressed, at times, it's still unsure if Kentucky knows that there is a defensive side to basketball. Loyola-Chicago is nearly the complete opposite of Kentucky. They don’t have incredible athletes or elite NBA prospects, but they share the ball incredibly well. They don’t beat themselves by taking bad shots. Coach Porter Moser has a veteran group who plays for each other understands that if they execute their strategy, they can beat anyone. In their game against Tennessee, the Ramblers had 17 assists on 22 made field goals. In their game against the Hurricanes, they had 19 assists on 26 made field goals. For those of you keeping score at home, that is a whopping 75% of their made field goals coming on an assist from a teammate.
Despite my terrible performance with predictions on the first round, I swear that I have played basketball before. And when you go up against a team that shares the ball that well, and everyone has the ability to make shots, it can feel like you are playing 5 on 7. No matter what you do on defense, when the ball starts zipping around the court like that, it can demoralize a team. Especially a team filled with a bunch of highly-touted freshmen who have been told they are the next best thing in basketball. To show just how proficient Loyola is at executing their offensive game plan, I'm going to break down the play that gave Loyola the game-tying bucket against Miami. It's a simple set, but it's effective because these players have played with each other so much that they know exactly how to time each step to perfection.
Set-Up
It's very simple. One guard at the top of the key, one on each wing, and two players on each block. Loyola has a versatile, 4-guard lineup so instead of two big men down low, they have one. The ball starts at the top of the key and is swung over to the far-side wing.
It's very simple. One guard at the top of the key, one on each wing, and two players on each block. Loyola has a versatile, 4-guard lineup so instead of two big men down low, they have one. The ball starts at the top of the key and is swung over to the far-side wing.
The Bluff
One of the main reasons this play works so well is because it's a fake. Initially, the play reads as an isolation play for the guard coming through on the post switch. The two low post players switch places, seemingly to exploit a mismatch of a Miami guard inside. Clayton Custer (#13), the player who this play is really set up for, clears out to the near side wing as the ball is entered into the post off the ball swing. Custer acts like he is out of the play on the near side wing.
One of the main reasons this play works so well is because it's a fake. Initially, the play reads as an isolation play for the guard coming through on the post switch. The two low post players switch places, seemingly to exploit a mismatch of a Miami guard inside. Clayton Custer (#13), the player who this play is really set up for, clears out to the near side wing as the ball is entered into the post off the ball swing. Custer acts like he is out of the play on the near side wing.
The Reveal
This is where the beauty of this play is visible. There are two important actions going on at the same time: the screen, and the pass. The one Loyola big man in this play, Cameron Krutwig, sets a nice back screen for Custer, who fades to the corner at the same time the pass is in the air. The Miami defenders are too late in reacting to the surprise, and the result is a wide-open catch-and-shoot jumper for Custer. If you look closely enough, you can see the moment when Custer's defender thinks "oh, shit!" The guard who enacted the bluff post-isolation is Ben Richardson, who knows that Custer is only going to be free for a split second from the screen, so he turns and whips the ball to the opposite corner without even seeing Custer. I know the diagrams are sort of unhelpful because the numbers next to the dots are difficult to read. I have posted a GIF I created of the play below, and I encourage you all to watch where Custer is when Richardson makes the pass to him. If by some chance, I have yet to bore you to death, I encourage you to watch every player's actions separately and how they all flow together to create this open look. |
Given the high stakes of the situation, Loyola's ability to stay calm under pressure and run their set to get Clayton Custer a good look from three is impressive. It's this type of composure that could give youthful teams like Kentucky problems. Of course, Kentucky has to beat Kansas State first and the Ramblers have to get past Nevada. If both of those things don't happen then this is all for nothing, and the basketball gods will have themselves a laugh at my expense again. But that's what makes March Madness fun, right? The endless possibilities and outcomes when two teams meet each other with one chance to move on, or be sent home. And let me be clear here, one play from Loyola will not beat Kentucky, but the contrast in team styles should create for an excellent chess match should these teams meet up in the Elite Eight. |